Palaeosimulation for Europe -- Part 2: Model vs. reconstructions

A Pseudoproxy Evaluation of Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling and Canonical Correlation Analysis for Climate Field Reconstructions over Europe*

A pseudoproxy comparison is presented for two statistical methods used to derive annual climate field reconstructions (CFRs) for Europe. The employed methods use the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) procedure presented by Smerdon et al. and the Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) method adopted from Tingley and Huybers. Pseudoproxy experiments (PPEs) are constructed from modeled temperature d...

Vector Autoregressive Model Selection: Gross Domestic Product and Europe Oil Prices Data Modelling

 We consider the problem of model selection in vector autoregressive model with Normal innovation. Tests such as Vuong's and Cox's tests are provided for order and model selection, i.e. for selecting the order and a suitable subset of regressors, in vector autoregressive model. We propose a test as a modified log-likelihood ratio test for selecting subsets of regressors. The Europe oil prices, ...

How cold was Europe at the Last Glacial Maximum? A synthesis of the progress achieved since the first PMIP model-data comparison

The Last Glacial Maximum has been one of the first foci of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). During its first phase, the results of 17 atmosphere general circulation models were compared to paleoclimate reconstructions. One of the largest discrepancies in the simulations was the systematic underestimation, by at least 10C, of the winter cooling over Europe and the Medit...

Reconstructing glacier-based climates of LGM Europe and Russia – Part 3: Comparison with GCM and pollen-based climate reconstructions

Plant macrofossil evidence for an early onset of the Holocene summer thermal maximum in northernmost Europe

Holocene summer temperature reconstructions from northern Europe based on sedimentary pollen records suggest an onset of peak summer warmth around 9,000 years ago. However, pollen-based temperature reconstructions are largely driven by changes in the proportions of tree taxa, and thus the early-Holocene warming signal may be delayed due to the geographical disequilibrium between climate and tre...